King's Court: pre-Postseason Edition

This one is for Ori - we're ditching the card rankings and just using fancy numbers.

What I'm doing here is listing out the players that are most important to the Cavs in terms of giving us a chance to win it all. For instance, let's say I figure we have a 50% chance of winning a championship right now. But if you take away Lebron, we're hopeless, so Lebron has added that 50% chance.

In reality, I'd put our chances of getting out of the first round at 50%. Low, yes, but look how we're playing. Washington isn't playing great, but it's a close match any way you look at it. I think Lebron will put us over the top, breaking his back (hopefully not literally) for 48 minutes every game. Ok, I'll ratchet up the odds to 60%.

Then we advance to face the Celtics. (Or Atlanta or even Indy, if I want to be thorough.) If we do make it out of the first round, we must be playing reasonably well. We won't stop the Wizards without some defense and Lebron isn't about to average the 95 points it'll take to win. In other words, I'll definitely like our chances more at that point than I would if we were looking at that series now. No doubt it would be an upset, but with Lebron, it can't be a huge one. I'd put our chances of winning at about 35%.

Moving on to face the Pistons or Magic, we'll have some momentum. If we're good enough to pass the Celtics and matched up against the Pistons, I feel like we'll have the psychological edge, though it's possible the Pistons would make quick work of Orlando, while there's is no way a series against Boston is anything less than a knock down drag out war. If the Magic do beat the Pistons, it'll have been the same sort of battle. Plus, then I like our odds of beating the Magic. Like we live and die with Lebron, they need their jumpers. While I count on Lebron to never fail, jumpshots inevitably go cold. We've shown we can handle the Magic in spurts and we've seen them get hot against us. Either series would be pretty evenly matched, so I'll put our chances at 50% to make the finals at that point.

And then the West would be a total crapshoot. I like our chances with the Lakers or Jazz, but I'm scared of the Suns, Hornets or Spurs. Let's just put our odds at 40% and call it a day.

Of course, all those numbers are completely arbitrary. If you want some more scientific odds, go call John Hollinger. They just help me make my point about the list below. If we win any of those series, our odds will have jumped to 100% by the end. So if I go and say Dwayne Jones is THE key to beating the Wizards, he earns a big chunk of that 40% increase. But then if Lance Allred has the tools to dominate Garnett and the Celtics, he's worth more of that 65% jump. Since the Cavs can go 11 deep, I gave Lebron Spinal Tap-esque 11s across the board and everyone else for each series, 1-10.

And with that long-winded explanation, away we go:

1. Lebron James: Is "duh" still part of the lexicon? Is anybody else more important to the Cavs chances? I suppose I could give a separate entry to Lebron's back, but let's assume it's still properly attached.


2. Zydrunas Ilgaukas: We've seen time and again that when the big fella is on - volleyball around the rim and stroking from 18 - the Cavs are tough to beat. Making teams defend both sides of the pick and pop, when one side can shoot over anybody and the other side is Lebron, takes its toll. Plus, of our 3 likely matchups, only Rasheed has the size to body Z in the post. Everybody else needs to adjust by denying the ball or showing a double. And any attention away from Lebron gives the King the edge.


3. Delonte West: First of all, let's make it clear that the Cavs are only going to win this little tournament with a dose of staunch defense. I'm not so worried about the Wizards - we match up pretty well. But there is no way we can beat the Celtics if Rajon Rondo runs roughshod over us and we only beat the Pistons last year because Billups couldn't get a clean shot. That said, we also need to get some easy baskets, or these will be some awfully grueling series. We've seen a few times lately where the Delonte/Lebron tandem (with a sprinking of Devin Brown) can run amok in the open court. If we count on 90 half court possessions each game, Lebron and our aged front court will get worn down.


4. Joe Smith: But let's also face it: The Cavs will end up counting on their half-court offense, and not every game is Game 5. Now, Joe Smith isn't a guy that's tough to match up against. He's not that quick or strong or tall, but he is crafty. He has a number of moves in the post and, unlike the plodding Lithuanian, he knows to go to them quickly. He makes defensive rebounds work by slipping through box outs. He hits his open jumpers. And he has some creaky old knees. Everybody has been calling for more Joe Smith because he's never let us down. With 4 months of rest around the corner, we'll finally get what we want. Plus, he's a smart defender. He'll stay off Jamison and make him get hot on jumpers. He'll poke and prod Rasheed out to the 3 point line and he won't let KG dominate. He won't start, but I'd bet he finishes every game we win.


5. Daniel Gibson: Boobie fit closer to the top tier than to those below him. I guess that means in crunch time, we might see that lineup of Delonte, Boobie, Lebron, Smith and Z. Or maybe I'm a little too offense-minded. Either way, Boobie's play will be big on both ends because of how he matches up. Starting with the Wizards, he will be called on as the 6th man opposite Arenas. I don't expect him to put up as many points, but if he is hitting, he can offset Gilbert's output with efficiency. I'm not sure if Mike Brown would rather put a taller defender like Devin Brown on Arenas, just to keep a hand in his face, because after missing most of the year with knee trouble, I doubt Gilbert will be putting it on the floor and blowing past anybody. Against Boston, Boobie will be called on to match up with Senor Testicles, Sam Cassell. And against Detroit, let's just hope he can step us like last year.


6. Ben Wallace: He's banged up and erratic, but we'll need spurts of the old Ben to have a chance. Starting the first and third, it'll be largely on him to ensure that the game doesn't slip away defensively. He has an incredibly tough matchup with Jamison and Garnett is a hanfdul for anybody. Even if he only plays 20 minutes each game, they need to be with the intensity of a guy with his fro on fire.


7. Wally Szczerbiak: Wallace just edged out Wally in my rankings because of those matchups in the first two rounds, but Wally will be key against the Pistons. With Sasha more or less riding the pine, it'll fall to Wally to fight through screens to get a hand in the face of Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton once it becomes clear Devin Brown hasn't the strength, speed or length. Wally has played with lots of hustle since coming over, and that is exactly what it takes to fight through bigger bodies in hopes of keeping a shooter from the open looks that lead to a hot hand. On the offensive end, if Boobie can't find his shot, we'll be counting on Wally to stretch the floor for Lebron.


8. Anderson Varejao: If he could make the passes he did against the Bulls consistently, he'd almost top this list as the Brazilian Garnett. Instead his contributions, like Wallace's will be mostly defensive. In fact, I have him as more crucial than Wallace once we get past the Wizards, as I think he'll get more important minutes with the task of stopping Garnett and Rasheed. Plus, if Wallace can't stay in front of Jamison, Varejao actually becomes the defensive key in each series. And then anything he brings offensively is a bonus.


9. Devin Brown: Starting, and averaging close to 30 minutes of late, puts a lot of responsibility on DB's shoulders. Unfortunately, I don't really see him living up to it, so I'm not counting on him providing much shut down defense against Arenas, Butler, Allen, Pierce, Chauncey or Rip. But, if he can be the catalyst preventing our offense lulls, he'll prove his worth and keep his minutes at least in the 20s. If Lebron dominates the ball, relegating Devin to the corner, he'll quickly give way to a better shooter.


10. Sasha Pavlovic: Will Sasha play? Nobody but Mike Brown knows, probably not even Sasha. Clearly he belongs down here based on the recent string of DNP-CDs, but he still has tremendous potential, as he is the most physically able to defend the shooting guards and small forwards that would otherwise be tasked to Lebron. I don't expect him to play, but I hope he's ready if we need him.


11. Damon Jones He might only play 14 seconds, but he'll make it count.

We'll be back after the Heat game tomorrow. There's no need to preview a game with a team that bad. We'd better win.

Go Cavs!